Computational cognitive assistants for futures studies: Toward vision based simulation

Many foresight researchers believe that quantitative simulations have a very restricted contribution in futures studies due to their simplicity and lack of creativity. While qualitative methods, taking advantage of the human cognitive system, have a great potential in addressing a wide range of problems in futures studies, this potential is mostly due to the human visual logic that can handle the task of imagining future scenarios much better than mathematical logic.On the other hand, computational methods benefit from the advantages of silicon-based systems namely speed, large memory, rapid networking, and communication. Hence, it would be extremely beneficial to come up with a solution that combines the positive sides of both qualitative and computational approaches. Cognitive artificial agents are computational units that make use of the human cognitive system. Their interaction with foresight and futures researchers can result in promising solutions for the problems addressed in futures studies. In addition, these agents can serve as a great source of inspiration for taking the first step towards vision based computers that can simulate humans’ imaginations of the future.This paper reviews some of the previous attempts in this field and finally sheds light on the main issues where methods in futures studies can play a key role in the future of Human Computer Interaction systems. Our suggested architecture for a future studies interactions-based system along with its justifications and specifications is provided in the form of a request for proposal.     

Qualitative input-output analysis and structural information

The authors first introduce a slightly modified version of the quantitative theory of pull effects. After a short presentation of the basic ideas of qualitative input-output analysis with the aid of matrices, the qualitative goals of ‘completeness’ and ‘velocity’ are defined. The article ends with an investigation of the compatibility of these qualitative goals with the usual quantitative economic goals.     

《经济学家》载文和引文定量分析

运用文献计量学的方法,依据、<中文社会科学引文索引CSSCI>、<中国学术期刊综合引证报告>的数据,对全国中文核心期刊--<经济学家>创刊以来,特别是2000年以后所发论文的载文(包括载文量、作者地区、作者行业、栏目载文量)和引文(包括被引频次、影响因子、被引作者、被它刊引用)的定量分析,客观揭示该刊在我国学术界的整体水平和重要影响,以及社会科学研究者对该刊物的借鉴、汲取情况.     

The growing popularity of spiritual brands: What drives purchase intent?

In this study, we investigate the reason for the growing popularity of FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods) household products branded, promoted and sold in India by local spiritual leaders. We find that religiosity and normative community pressure are important purchase drivers for such products. Surprisingly, pragmatism in the presence of normative pressure also contributes to demand. We argue that self-identity theory provides a contextualized explanation in association with social identity theory to explain the influence of normative pressure on increased demand. The results of the study suggest that integrating social and self-identity theories provides a fuller insight into consumer behaviour in a complex social context.     

Monetary policy and the yield curve at zero interest

In contrast to affine term structure models, Black’s (1995) model of interest rates as options has properties suitable to examine the yield curve when the short-term interest rate is near zero. We estimate a Black’s model with Japan’s data to extract market expectations about duration of zero interest. We find that expectations about duration have substantially varied, which contradicts with the assumption utilized in the literature. We also find a tight link between expectations about duration and survey measures of inflation expectations, which appears to be attributable to the Bank of Japan’s commitment conditional on inflation.     

我国商业银行操作风险的量化分析

操作风险是金融机构需要面对的主要风险之一,操作风险的量化是对操作风险进行有效管理的前提之一,由于对它的认识尚处于初步阶段,商业银行对操作风险的度量和管理仍处于探索之中.本文对操作风险主要量化方法进行了分析,并对国内两家股份制商业银行的操作风险状况进行了实证研究.     

Quantitative measures of operational risk: an application to funds management

Basel II defines operational risk as the risk of direct or indirect loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people or systems or from external events. In the past decade, there have appeared a number of quantitative approaches to measuring this risk, approaches that abstract from market risk and reputational risk. The challenge is to develop operational risk measures in an asset management context where there is only limited information available about the incidence and severity of operational loss events. We survey different approaches to this problem and argue that managing this risk through operational due diligence is a source of alpha in this funds management context.     

Real-world jump-diffusion term structure models

This paper considers interest rate term structure models in a market attracting both continuous and discrete types of uncertainty. The event-driven noise is modelled by a Poisson random measure. Using as numeraire the growth optimal portfolio, interest rate derivatives are priced under the real-world probability measure. In particular, the real-world dynamics of the forward rates are derived and, for specific volatility structures, finite-dimensional Markovian representations are obtained. Furthermore, allowing for a stochastic short rate in a non-Markovian setting, a class of tractable affine term structures is derived where an equivalent risk-neutral probability measure may not exist.     

Capacity management for hospitality and tourism: A review of current approaches

In this article we provide a review of current capacity management approaches applicable to hospitality and tourism enterprises. While many of the traditional methodologies involve closed-form analytical calculations, newer methods have been developed that address more complex problems. These more recent methods include the creative use of mixed models such as those that integrate visitor-preference and operations-research models, linear programming, and simulation models. We consider the full range of methodologies, the advantages and disadvantages, and potential applications to both physical and human capacity estimation. We highlight the ways that various leisure industries can benefit from different approaches to capacity management.